Predicting the success of college football players can be a challenging task, and fans and media often rely on recruiting sites such as 247 for assistance. While studies suggest that these rankings can be accurate, especially for top programs, the accuracy of the rankings becomes less reliable as one goes further down the rankings. IMO, this is due to the lack of resources allocated to lower-ranked programs, like Texas State, coupled with the fact that the majority of high school football players are 2 and 3 star players. Recruiting sites don't have the manpower or financial incentives to accurately asses the players at the G5 or lower levels. As a result, recruiting sites are limited in their ability to provide predictive analysis beyond offers made to players.
To gain a better understanding of this phenomenon, I analyzed the high school rankings assigned by 247 to The Sun Belt All-Conference First and Second teams, which are selected by the league's fourteen head coaches and selected media partners and are generally accepted as the best players in the conference.
To provide context for my analysis, it’s important to remember how 247 ranks high school recruits. A player is considered a 2-star athlete when their ranking is below .8000. If they reach a ranking of .8000 and up to .8900, they are considered a 3-star player. From .8910 to .9799, they are considered a 4-star player, and .9800 and above is considered a 5-star player. Unranked players are those who garner little to no recruiting attention and include walk-ons.
Since most SBC football recruits are 3 Stars, to include twenty 4 stars and one 5 star the past 2 years, one would expect that All-Conference teams would mostly consist of highly ranked recruits per 247. What I found was shocking.
Upon analyzing the data, I found that out of the 44 players named to the 1st or 2nd All-Conference Teams, 29 players or 66% were either 2-star or unranked. Only 19 or 34% of players on the All-Conference Teams were rated as 3-star or higher.
So what does the typical All-Conference recruit look like? He is a redshirt upperclassman who is either a 2-Star or unranked player our of high school.
Note: Unranked players were assigned the minimum 2-Star ranking of .7.
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